Friday, September 19, 2008

Those who don't learn from history...

"Then one day, I say, 'Fuck fish.'" Chris Cooper, Adaptation

If the borrowing and bailing out of these conglomerates keep continuing, we're all going to be saying fuck fish... forget this luxury we call the fish hobby, we'll be lucky to be eating fish if hyper inflation sets in and the entire U.S. infrastructure drops out under the cloud of speculation Wall Street's built for itself over the last eleven years.

Remember all the books, movies, and cultural fears from the eighties and early 90s about the Japanese market dominating the dollar and taking over America? It's in all kinds of movies: Gremlins, Rising Sun, Black Rain, Robocop 3.

Cause America has been reduced to soundbytes and lipstick, here's Wikipedia to connect the dots about Japan's economic rise and fall, largely in regard to their housing market:

With so much money readily available for investment, speculation was inevitable, particularly in the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the real estate market. The Nikkei stock index hit its all-time high on December 29, 1989 when it reached an intra-day high of 38,957.44 before closing at 38,915.87. The rates for housing, stocks, and bonds rose so much that at one point the government issued 100-year bonds. Additionally, banks granted increasingly risky loans.

At the height of the bubble, a commonly-quoted claim was that the land beneath the Imperial Palace in Tokyo was worth more than the entire state of California. A sense of national pride and assertiveness was regained as a result of its new power, which manifested itself in works such as The Japan That Can Say No by Shintaro Ishihara and SONY founder Akio Morita. Many outside Japan were alarmed by this resurgence, leading to criticism from foreign observers. Michael Crichton, for example, wrote Rising Sun at this time, which highlighted US concerns with the growing Japanese economic power.

Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over US$1.5 million per square meter ($139,000 per square foot). Prices were only slightly less in other areas of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped and Tokyo's residential homes were a fraction of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world. Trillions were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets.

With the economy driven by its high rates of reinvestment, this crash hit particularly hard. Investments were increasingly directed out of the country, and manufacturing firms lost some degree of their technological edge. As Japanese products became less competitive overseas, the low consumption rate began to bear on the economy, causing a deflationary spiral. The Japanese Central Bank set interest rates at approximately absolute zero. When that failed to stop deflation some economists, such as Paul Krugman, and some Japanese politicians, spoke of deliberately causing hyperinflation[1]. To this day, 2008, the Japanese Central Bank has the lowest interest rates in the developed world.

The easily obtainable credit that had helped create and engorge the real estate bubble continued to be a problem for several years to come, and as late as 1997, banks were still making loans that had a low guarantee of being repaid. Loan Officers and Investment staff had a hard time finding anything to invest in that would return a profit. They would sometimes resort to depositing their block of investment cash, as ordinary deposits, in a competing bank, which would bring howls of complaint from that bank's Loan Officers and Investment staff. Meanwhile, the extremely low interest rate offered for deposits, such as 0.1%, meant that ordinary Japanese savers were just as inclined to put their money under their beds as they were to put it in savings accounts.[2] Correcting the credit problem became even more difficult as the government began to subsidize failing banks and businesses, creating many so-called "zombie businesses". Eventually a carry trade developed in which money was borrowed from Japan, invested for returns elsewhere and then the Japanese were paid back, with a nice profit for the trader.

The time after the bubble's collapse (崩壊 hōkai?), which occurred gradually rather than catastrophically, is known as the "lost decade or end of the century" (失われた10年 ushinawareta jūnen?) in Japan. The Nikkei 225 stock index eventually bottomed out at 7603.76 in April 2003 before resuming an upward climb. (Wikipedia)

Check out HGTV's "House Hunters" to get the low-down on the American housing market. We're not quite at 100,000 bucks per square foot, as we're a much larger country that still has frontier lands and plenty of real estate for speculators to theoretically develop. But you just won't find a house in a major city (or an entire state, depending on where you live) that you can afford without ridiculous credit lending. How many times do the "House Hunters" go for broke on a 400 K 2-bedroom, 100-year old "fixer-upper" in a minor city in California?

Remember the housing bubble in Japan. You do the math.

Thursday, September 04, 2008

Don't let our nation go back to 1930

I've done it before... I broke ranks with the fish folks and blogged about such controversial topics as Rachel Ray, the Sopranos, and probably another few wild cards I'm forgetting.

But I'll bet the bank here and say this will take the lot.

Here's the deal: I have a typical republican mindset. I am an avid 2nd amendment supporter. I have guns, of all types, and I have a lot of them. I hate governmental, bureaucratic welfare of any sort as a section-8 project facility was going to move into my neighborhood and anyone who's ever lived near this kind of threat can relate to what I'm talking about. My wife and I lived in a basement duplex apartment and we used a local laundromat for a year. A full section-8 project was a mile away and this laundromat, as well as the very nice convenience store attached, was forced to close down due to robberies, shootings, and other harassment.

That's one image my wife and I will never forget... driving by that nice convenience store and laundry and seeing them boarded up and closed for more than a year, yet their lights were still on.

I will not be voting for John McCain. Or any Republican above my local county area.

What we have here in national politics is a joke. It's a disgrace, and we all should be ashamed. Since when is teenage motherhood and 17-year old marriage a virtue? Something that's suddenly so political the whole family has to stand on the stage in front of the country? For what purpose? Do they think we're pure white trash and we can "relate?"

Now to the issues behind the VP pick:

Creationism in schools SHOULD NOT be taught alongside evolution. I see evolution every day in my fish and my tanks (you can see how natural adaptation can be manipulated among selective breeding with oscars and guppies and how what we've created doesn't even closely resemble their wild form!). Call it what you want, but intelligent design is something that belongs in a class of its own. And I think it should be taught!

9/5 EDIT : Yes, I think it has a place in school, alongside the teaching of the platonic model of the universe. But it's absurd to say scientists are "split" on the issue and treat it like it's actually viable. "Intelligent Design" is simply a covert means to get creationism taught in school.

Give it a class in its own standing, like an elective course for extra college credit. Just like the platonic model of the universe, it's great, and some aspects of intelligent design I completely agree with because I personally don't think any of us evolved to be where we are today without some form of higher intelligence behind it.

But drop the political bullshit, as Peg Noonan, one of Reagan's speech authors, has stated about this whole farce.

Regarding Palin's stance on abortion. It is sick and obscene to outlaw medical intervetion in cases of rape and incest. It's going back to the middle ages. And for the record here, and there's no spin or any teleprompter on me, my wife and I chose to have a homebirth and we would "choose" life every time! Oh yes, and my wife would also never get on a plane for an 8-plus hour ride back home just to have the baby in Alaska! THAT IS INSANE AND IRRESPONSIBLE, AND I CHALLENGE ANYONE, IN THE HOME BIRTH AND PRO-MIDWIFE MOVEMENTS TO WHICH MY WIFE AND I BOTH ADAMENTLY SUBSCRIBE, TO TO ARGUE ME ON THAT POINT.

I have an 18 month old son who I would never parade in front of a convention front and center. Subjecting a baby to that? And your own pregnant daughter? It's beyond my understanding as a parent.

I just gave 50 bucks to Obama's campaign. I won't allow America to become a Jerry Springer fest where "issues" and platforms aren't even relevant. And I deplore the disgusting joke they made of Obama being a "community organizer." That should make anyone who's ever helped people (volunteering at a homeless shelter as I have, taking low pay to teach first time home-owners about mortgages and credit, like the people who helped my wife and I buy our home) puke and hopefully see what is really going on here and the wool that's being pulled over on all Republicans.

I don't like being manipulated or played a fool. And that's what's going on here.

I'm voting democrat this year (probably not full ticket, but by God, where it counts), and I'm telling everyone else to do the same thing! And I can't believe I just gave 50 bucks to a politician, but I love this country and I don't want to see it become a total farce or just plain die.

- Josh
joshday.com

PS comments disabled cause I dont want to hear it, we'll return to fish soon. You got something to say to me email me with your own goddamn name.